Not all types of sports betting are equally profitable. Our expert names the differences and explains how to analyze your own predictive abilities. It is also recommended to use accounts with two providers.
Dortmund or Bavaria? Liverpool or Manchester City? The football season is entering its hot phase, both nationally and internationally. At the same time, the range of sports betting providers is expanding. But how do interested people know that they can make money with their knowledge?
A chartered statistician has developed a standardized procedure that can be used to measure predictive ability. This is not the only advice from an expert who has analyzed thousands of football matches and betting offers with his team.
Bookmakers reach this value
If a sports bettor on https://asian-bookies.net/malaysia-online-sports-betting-sites/ the portal wants to make money on his tips, he must predict games better than a bookmaker. But how good are bookmakers with their predictions? “Over the course of two years, we analyzed the odds of the five largest bookmakers and made some very interesting discoveries in the process,” says Monka. 40 percent, if we consider the allowances calculated.
Conversely, this means that if a sports bettor doesn't just want to make money selectively, he must be better than that 40 percent in the long run.
But how to determine this value in advance? Monkey's metric requires a sample of 30 football matches, but preferably twice as many. For each of these games, the tipster analyzes the probability of the outcome in advance, for example, 40% win at home, 25% draw, 35% win away. Important: The amount must always be 100 percent.
After the games are completed, an assessment follows the following scheme: add up your probabilities of the corresponding game outcome for each game, and then divide the number of games by the calculated amount. Read about Transforming Sports Betting with AI and Neural Network by https://www.analyticsinsight.net/transforming-sports-betting-with-ai-and-neural-networks/.
The value you receive is your personal ability to predict. Monka proposes the following classification:
- 35 percent - 40 percent is a good result
- 41 percent - 45 percent is a very good result
- Over 46 percent is an excellent result
- The researcher came to this conclusion after polling the winners of classic betting groups: “The best sometimes received more than 45 percent.
- The longer the test lasted, the more the score dropped, and then dropped below 40 percent in all cases.”
Pay attention to surcharges
Sports betting providers want to make money. Therefore, their odds are never 100% fair, but always include certain premiums. This means that if you put the odds of the bookmakers in the metric described above, the sum will not be 100 percent, but a value, for example, 105. The bookmakers evaluate the risks associated with each bet in their favor.
In terms of service, Monka found significant differences between different types of bets
On average, reputable bookmakers charge the lowest premium on a classic three-way bet. It is four to six percent.
So-called double-sided betting, where there are only two options (over/under goals, double chance, tennis result, etc.), is more beneficial for sports bettors as they are easier to evaluate. The bookmaker reduces this advantage and adds higher premiums to such bets. “On average, they make up six to eight percent,” says Monka.
He found the highest premiums on the exact final score. Accordingly, 30 percent of the total amount is kept for all possible outcomes. Monka: “Unfortunately, it is not clear for the bookmaker which result is directly calculated with which additional payment. However, it can be assumed that the most frequently played results receive the highest bonuses.